So Bad…

I’ve really never seen the computer models this bad at 72 hrs. Note that the following maps are all different predictions from different computer models valid for the same exact time. The simulations were all run at 4:00 AM PST this morning:

1. CMC (from Canada)

2. UKMET (from Britain)

3. GFS/AVN (from the US)

4. ECMWF (from the EU)

5. WRF (from the US)

You don’t need to be an expert to tell anyone how different those maps look for just 3 days out. This lack of consensus is probably due to the fact that the relevant pieces of the puzzle (the energy off the coast of British Columbia that is to amplify over the central US, and the energy near Baja California) are both over data-sparse areas (not a lot of upper-air or surface observations in Mexico or over the ocean), so a lot of interpolation is used to estimate the orientations/positions/magnitudes/etc. of the relevant fields. Because this setup is so sensitive to initial conditions, small differences in these estimations are leading to significant differences in later outcome. (Read this.) In general however, yesterday’s computer models had better consensus and were, in general, closer with the two pieces of energy.


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